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We put our pre-match prediction for every game next to what actually happened. Everything is recomputed leak-safe — using only what was known before kickoff — so this is an honest track record, not a highlight reel.
When we say a result is X% likely, how often does it actually happen? The closer the two columns, the better-calibrated the model.
| Our confidence | Avg predicted | Actually happened | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| <40% | 38% | 0% | 1 |
| 40–50% | 46% | 54% | 13 |
| 50–60% | 56% | 53% | 17 |
| 60–75% | 68% | 67% | 27 |
| 75%+ | 82% | 79% | 24 |
Head-to-head over matches with a frozen pre-kickoff market price (Polymarket closing line): our pure model, the market alone, and the blend we actually publish. Lower Brier/RPS is better.
| Forecast | Brier score | RPS | Outcome correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model only | 0.175 | 0.073 | 100% |
| Market only | 0.224 | 0.086 | 100% |
| Blend (60%) | 0.199 | 0.079 | 100% |
3 matches with a clean pre-kickoff line — Collecting data — clean closing lines have been captured since June 30, so this comparison grows as the knockout matches finish.
Average gap between our expected number and the real one (per team, per match).
Each prediction is recomputed using only information available before kickoff (team strength, recent form, earlier matches). Fouls and cards aren't shown — they're not predictable from team strength. Statistical model, not betting advice.